Performance of screening of contacts of COVID-19 cases in same flight / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To understand the performance of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid detection in screening of contacts of COVID-19 cases in same flights and provide evidence for the effective screening of persons at high risk for the infection in domestic flights. Methods: The information of passengers who took same domestic flights with COVID-19 cases in China from April 1, 2020 to April 30, 2022 were retrospectively collected,and χ2 test was used to analyze positive nucleic acid detection rates in the passengers in different times before the onsets of the index cases, in different seat rows and in epidemic periods of different 2019-nCoV variants. Results: During the study period, a total of 433 index cases were identified among 23 548 passengers in 370 flights. Subsequently, 72 positive cases of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid were detected in the passengers, in whom 57 were accompanying persons of the index cases. Further analysis of the another 15 passengers who tested positive for the nucleic acid showed that 86.67% of them had onsets or positive detections within 3 days after the diagnosis of the index cases, and the boarding times were all within 4 days before the onsets of the index cases. The positive detection rate in the passengers who seated in first three rows before and after the index cases was 0.15% (95%CI: 0.08%-0.27%), significantly higher than in the passengers in other rows (0.04%, 95%CI: 0.02%-0.10%, P=0.007),and there was no significant difference in the positive detection rate among the passengers in each of the 3 rows before and after the index cases (P=0.577). No significant differences were found in the positive detection rate in the passengers, except the accompanying persons, among the epidemics caused by different 2019-nCoV variants (P=0.565). During the Omicron epidemic period, all the positive detections in the passengers, except the accompanying persons, were within 3 days before the onset of the index cases. Conclusions: The screening test of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid can be conducted in the passengers took the same flights within 4 days before the onsets of the index cases on board. Passengers who seated within 3 rows from the index cases can considered as the close contacts at high risk for 2019-nCoV, for whom screening should be conducted first and special managements are needed. The passengers in other rows can be classified as general risk persons for screening and management.

Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Changes in Notified Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China, 2005-2020 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.@*METHODS@#Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System (TBIMS) from 2005 to 2020, we calculated the annual percentage change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression model.@*RESULTS@#From 2005 to 2020, a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China, with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population. The age standardization rate (ASR) continued to decline from 116.9 (/100,000) in 2005 to 47.6 (/100,000) in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.6% [APC = -5.6, 95% confidence interval ( CI): -7.0 to -4.2]. The smallest decline occurred in 2011-2018 (APC = -3.4, 95% CI: -4.6 to -2.3) and the largest decrease in 2018-2020 (APC = -9.2, 95% CI: -16.4 to -1.3). From 2005 to 2020, the ASR in males (159.8 per 100,000 in 2005, 72.0 per 100,000 in 2020) was higher than that in females (62.2 per 100,000 in 2005, 32.3 per 100,000 in 2020), with an average annual decline of 6.0% for male and 4.9% for female. The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults (65 years and over) (182.3/100,000), with an average annual decline of 6.4%; children (0-14 years) were the lowest (4.8/100,000), with an average annual decline of 7.3%, but a significant increase of 3.3% between 2014 and 2020 (APC = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.2); middle-aged (35-64 years) decreased by 5.8%; and youth (15-34 years) decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%. The average ASR in rural areas (81.3/100,000) is higher than that in urban areas (76.1/100,000). The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5% and 6.3% in urban areas. South China had the highest average ASR (103.2/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%, while North China had the lowest (56.5/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%. The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3 (/100,000), with the smallest annual decline (APC = -4.5, 95% CI: -5.5 to -3.5); the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1 (/100,000), with the largest annual decline (APC = -6.4, 95% CI: -10.0 to -2.7); Central, Northeastern, and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 6.1% per year, respectively.@*CONCLUSIONS@#From 2005 to 2020, the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline, falling by 55%. For high-risk groups such as males, older adults, high-burden areas in South, Southwest, and Northwest China, and rural regions, proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases. There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years, the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.

Residents' sense of acquisition and influencing factors in China's Sanitary City Initiative / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To analyze the residents' sense of acquisition (recognition, perceptibility and satisfaction) and influencing factors in China's Sanitary City Initiative. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted from December 2020 to February 2021. The data about the residents' sense of acquisition were collected by using questionnaire from 2 465 residents who were aged ≥18 years and had lived in local communities for at least one year in 31, 14 and 16 cities with national sanitary city title in eastern, central and western China the influencing factors of residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative were analyzed by using multivariate multilevel model. Results: The total score of residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative was 231.15±32.45. After converting the scores according to the 100-score standardized method, the results showed that the recognition score, perception score and the satisfaction score were 85.02, 59.08 and 61.42, respectively. The results of influencing factors analysis showed that education level, gender, marital status, age, prevalence of physical exercise and self-assessment of health status were correlated with the scores of residents' recognition (β:1.24-2.54,all P<0.05); the concentration of inhalable fine particles , the green coverage of built-up area, the level of GDP per capita and the type of residential community, prevalence of physical exercise and self-assessment of health status were correlated with the score of residents' perception (β:1.76-8.86,all P<0.05); the concentration of inhalable fine particles , the green coverage of built-up area, the level of GDP per capita and the type of residential community, education level, prevalence of physical exercise and self-assessment of health status were correlated with the score of residents' satisfaction (β:1.34-6.26,all P<0.05). Conclusions: The total score of residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative was relatively high, indicating that the policy has been widely recognized. The detailed management of policy implementation should be strengthened in the future, and more attention needs to be paid to actual needs of the residents to further improve the residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative.

Diagnosis and treatment for emphysematous pyelonephritis: analysis of 14 cases from a single centre / 中华外科杂志

Objective: To examine the modalities of treatment and clinical outcomes of emphysematous pyelonephritis (EPN), in order to improve the survival rate of EPN patients. Methods: Totally 14 patients diagnosed as EPN between October 2011 and November 2020 at Department of Urology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine were included in this article. Data collection including patient demographics, clinical manifestations, management and clinical outcomes were conducted by retrospective charts review, after receiving the institutional review board's approval. There were 11 females and 3 males with a median age of 59 years (range: 52 to 73 years). The lesions were located on the left side in 10 patients and right side in 4 patients. All the 14 patients suffered from fever, and present with severe sepsis or septic shock. The median time from symptom onset to admission to hospital was 3 days(range: 2 to 5 days). All cases had diabetes mellitus. Escherichia coli was the most common organism been cultured (11 cases), while Klebsiella pneumonia was the second (3 cases). CT scan showed bubbly or located gas in the renal parenchyma in 5 cases and presence of steaky or mottled gas in the renal parenchyma in 9 cases. All patients had been admitted to ICU for anti-septic shock therapy. Three patients had undergone percutaneous catheter drainage along with broad-spectrum antibiotics therapy while 3 patients had immediate nephrectomy, the other 8 cases had a combination of an initial percutaneous catheter drainage and second stage nephrectomy. Results: In this case series, 3 patients were died from EPN while the other 11 were survived. The median ICU stay time was 6 days (range: 3 to 11 days). Of the 3 patients died from EPN, 2 had undergone percutaneous catheter drainage along and 1 had received immediate nephrectomy. Among the 11 patients who were survived, only 1 had received percutaneous catheter drainage while the other 10 received nephrectomy (8 patients had staged nephrectomy). Follow-up was performed 6 months after discharge. Of the 11 surviving patients, 2 were lost to follow-up, and the remaining 9 patients had an creatine level of (118.4±29.4) μmol/L (range: 89 to 176 μmol/L). Conclusions: For patients coupled with diabetes who were initially diagnosed as acute pyelonephritis, the possibility of EPN should be considered when the disease progressed rapidly especially septic shock occurred. On the basis of empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics therapy and standardized anti-septic shock treatment, a combination of an initial percutaneous catheter drainage and second stage nephrectomy could be efficacious.

Spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 epidemic in the early phase in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: Based on the geographic information systems, we exploreed the spatiotemporal clustering and the development and evolution of COVID-19 epidemic at prefectural level in China from the time when the epidemic was discovered to the time when the lockdown ended in Wuhan. Methods: The information and data of the confirmed COVID-19 cases from December 8, 2019 to April 8, 2020 were collected from 367 prefectures in China for a spatial autocorrelation analysis with software GeoDa, and software ArcGIS was used to visualize the results. Software SatScan was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis to visualize the hot-spot areas of the epidemic. Results: The incidence of new cases of COVID-19 had obvious global autocorrelation and the partial autocorrelation results showed that incidence of COVID-19 had different spatial distribution at different times from December 8, 2019 to March 4, 2020. There was no significant difference in global autocorrelation coefficient from March 5, 2020 to April 8, 2020. The statistical analysis of spatiotemporal scanning identified two kinds of spatiotemporal clustering areas, the first class clustering areas included 10 prefectures, mainly distributed in Hubei, from January 13 to February 25, 2020. The secondary class clustering areas included 142 prefectures, mainly distributed in provinces in the north and east of Hubei, from January 23 to February 1, 2020. Conclusions: There was a clear spatiotemporal correlation in the distribution of the outbreaks in the early phase of COVID-19 epidemic (December 8, 2019-March 4, 2020) in China. With the decrease of the case and effective prevention and control measures, the epidemics had no longer significant correlations among areas from March 5 to April 8. The study results showed relationship with time points of start and adjustment of emergency response at different degree in provinces. Furthermore, improving the early detection of new outbreaks and taking timely and effective prevention and control measures played an important role in blocking the transmission.

Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.

Joint Association of Metabolic Health and Obesity with Ten-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Disease among Chinese Adults / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#This study aims to investigate the association of metabolic phenotypes that are jointly determined by body mass index (BMI) or fat mass percentage and metabolic health status with the ten-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Chinese adults.@*METHODS@#Data were obtained from a cross-sectional study. BMI and body fat mass percentage (FMP) combined with the metabolic status were used to define metabolic phenotypes. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression were used to examine the effects of metabolic phenotypes on CVD risk.@*RESULTS@#A total of 13,239 adults aged 34-75 years were included in this study. Compared with the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) phenotype, the metabolically unhealthy non-obese (MUNO) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotypes defined by BMI showed a higher CVD risk [odds ratio, OR (95% confidence interval, CI): 2.34 (1.89-2.89), 3.45 (2.50-4.75), respectively], after adjusting for the covariates. The MUNO and MUO phenotypes defined by FMP showed a higher CVD risk [ OR (95% CI): 2.31 (1.85-2.88), 2.63 (1.98-3.48), respectively] than the MHNO phenotype. The metabolically healthy obese phenotype, regardless of being defined by BMI or FMP, showed no CVD risk compared with the MHNO phenotype.@*CONCLUSION@#General obesity without central obesity does not increase CVD risk in metabolically healthy individuals. FMP might be a more meaningful factor for the evaluation of the association of obesity with CVD risk. Obesity and metabolic status have a synergistic effect on CVD risk.

Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviors among Chinese Children: Recent Trends and Correlates / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#This study was aimed at examining the trends and correlates of physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviors among Chinese children.@*Methods@#A total of 4,341 subjects (6,936 observations) aged 6-17 years who participated in the China Health and Nutrition Survey (2004-2015) were included. Of the subjects, 41% participated in the survey twice or more. Random-effects ordinal regression models and repeated-measures mixed-effects models were used to examine the PA trends. Quantile regression models were applied to examine the factors influencing PA and sedentary behaviors.@*Results@#From 2004 to 2015, the prevalence of physical inactivity among Chinese children aged 6-17 years increased by 5.5% [odds ratio ( @*Conclusions@#A declining PA trend among Chinese children aged 6-17 years was observed from 2004 to 2015, and certain subgroups and geographical areas are at higher risk of physical inactivity.

Developing a Subjective Evaluation Scale for Assessing the Built Environments of China's Hygienic City Initiative / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#To develop a preliminary subjective evaluation scale for assessing the built environments of China's Hygienic City Initiative and to evaluate its reliability and validity.@*Methods@#The initial items of the scale were determined based on a review of policy documents and consultations with experts. The final items of the scale were confirmed through individual interviews with residents combined with the discretetrend method, critical ratio method, correlation coefficient method, and factor analysis method. Then, the dimensions of the scale were determined using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The Cronbach's @*Results@#A scale containing five dimensions with 22 items was established, including urban lifestyle, governance, basic functions, environmental sanitation, and amenities. The Cronbach's @*Conclusion@#The preliminarily subjective evaluation scale for assessing the built environments of China's Hygienic City Initiative demonstrates a high level of reliability and validity. Additional empirical studies should be carried out to further verify the value of the scale in terms of practical application.

Association between Selenium in Soil and Diabetes in Chinese Residents Aged 35-74 Years: Results from the 2010 National Survey of Chronic Diseases and Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#To explore the association between soil selenium levels and the risk of diabetes in Chinese adults aged 35-74 years.@*Methods@#Data for this study were derived from the China Chronic Diseases and Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance 2010 survey. Selenium concentrations in soil were obtained from the Atlas of Soil Environmental Background Values in China. A two-level binary logistic regression model was used to determine the association between soil selenium concentrations and the risk of diabetes, with participants nested within districts/counties.@*Results@#A total of 69,332 participants aged 35-74 years, from 158 districts/counties were included in the analysis. Concentrations of selenium in soil varied greatly across the 158 districts/counties, with a median concentration of 0.219 mg/kg ( : 0.185-0.248). The results showed that both Quartile 1 (0.119-0.185 mg/kg) and Quartile 4 (0.249-0.344 mg/kg) groups were positively associated with diabetes compared to a soil selenium concentration of 0.186-0.219 mg/kg (Quartile 2), crude odds ratios ( s) (95% ) were 1.227 (1.003-1.502) and 1.280 (1.048-1.563). The values were 0.045 and 0.013, for Quartile 1 and Quartile 4 groups, respectively. After adjusting for all confounding factors of interest, the Quartile 1 group became non-significant, and the Quartile 4 group had an adjusted (95% ) of 1.203 (1.018-1.421) relative to the reference group (Quartile 2), the values was 0.030. No significant results were seen for the Quartile 3 group (0.220-0.248 mg/kg) compared to the reference group.@*Conclusion@#Excessive selenium concentrations in soil could increase the risk of diabetes among Chinese adults aged 35-74 years.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Infectious Diseases among Foreign Cases in China, 2004-2017 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#We aimed to assess the features of notifiable infectious diseases found commonly in foreign nationals in China between 2004 and 2017 to improve public health policy and responses for infectious diseases.@*Methods@#We performed a descriptive study of notifiable infectious diseases among foreigners reported from 2004 to 2017 in China using data from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (NNIDRIS). Demographic, temporal-spatial distribution were described and analyzed.@*Results@#A total of 67,939 cases of 33 different infectious diseases were reported among foreigners. These diseases were seen in 31 provinces of China and originated from 146 countries of the world. The infectious diseases with the highest incidence number were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) of 18,713 cases, hepatitis B (6,461 cases), hand, foot, and mouth disease (6,327 cases). Yunnan province had the highest number of notifiable infectious diseases in foreigners. There were different trends of the major infectious diseases among foreign cases seen in China and varied among provinces.@*Conclusions@#This is the first description of the epidemiological characteristic of notifiable infectious diseases among foreigners in China from 2004 to 2017. These data can be used to better inform policymakers about national health priorities for future research and control strategies.

Spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence in shenqiu county, henan province, china: a spatial analysis / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Liver cancer is a common and leading cause of cancer death in China. We used the cancer registry data collected from 2009 to 2011 to describe the spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence at village level in Shengqiu county, Henan province, China. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was employed to detect significant differences from a random spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence. Spatial scan statistics were used to detect and evaluate the clusters of liver cancer cases. Spatial clusters were mapped using ArcGIS 10.0 software in order to identify their physical location at village level. High cluster areas of liver cancer incidence were observed in 26 villages of 7 towns and low cluster areas were observed in 16 villages of 4 towns. High cluster areas of liver cancer incidence were distributed along the Sha Ying River which is the largest of tributary of the Huai River. Role of water pollution in Shenqiu County where the high cluster was found deserves further investigation.

Recent advances in treatment of patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer after docetaxel failure / 浙江大学学报·医学版

The standard first-line treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) is docetaxel-based chemotherapy. However, CRPC may not respond to docetaxel due to drug resistance or other causes. Several new therapeutic agents have been developed, some of which are approved by FDA or on clinical trials. The mechanisms of action of these agents include stabilizing microtubules, inhibiting hormone synthesis, blocking androgen receptor, bone targeting or immune regulation. In this article we review the novel therapeutic options for CPRC after docetaxel failure.

Spatial clustering and changing trend of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008-2011 in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective The purpose of this study was to explore the spatial clustering,specific clustering areas,as well as changing trend of clustering areas of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD).Methods Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) was used to conduct spatial statistical analyses for the HFMD using 2008-2011 data at both provincial and county/district levels.Results The Global Moran' s I coefficients appeared to be 0.3336,0.6074,0.3372,0.4620 and 0.4367 for 2008-2011and for the combined 4 years,respectively.The corresponding P-values were 0.002,0.001,0.004,0.001 and 0.001 respectively,when using the Monte Carlo tests with all the P-values less than 0.05.Moran' s Ⅰ coefficients ranged between 0.3 and 0.7,showing the appearance of moderate or higher clustering nature.Based on the results from nationwide analyses on clustering areas at the county/district levels between 2008 and 2011 (Moran' s I=0.5198,P=0.001),it appeared a moderate clustering nature.When local autocorrelation analysis was applied at the provincial level,3 hot spot areas in Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai cities in 2008；7 hot spot areas in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi,Shanghai,Jiangsu and Shandong in 2009; four hot spot areas:Beijing,Tianjin,Guangdong and Guangxi; five hot spot areas:Fujian,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guangdong and Guangxi in 2011,were discovered.390 hot-spot counties/districts were found through local autocorrelation analyses using the three-year data of 2008 to 2010.Conclusion Spatial clustering nature of HFMD incidence between 2008 and 2011 in China appeared to be moderate or high,with the clustered areas a north to south shifting trend.However,further investigation was in need to address this changing trend.

Comparison of the Designing Effects (DE) among different designs related to complex sampling methods / 中华流行病学杂志

To compare the designing effects (DE) among different complex sampling designing programs.Data from the ‘2002 Chinese Nutrition and Health Survey' was used as an example to generate the sampling population,and statistical simulation method was used to estimate the values of DEs from six complex sampling designing programs.It was found that the values of DEs varied among the six complex sampling designing programs.The values of the DEs were associated with the sample sizes in a positive way,with more sample stages and less stratified categories.Reduction of the numbers of sample stages and detailing stratified categories could decrease the DE values so as to improve the DE.

Using interrupted time series design to analyze changes in hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence during the declining incidence periods of 2008-2010 in China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To identify patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence in China during declining incidence periods of 2008, 2009, and 2010.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Reported HFMD cases over a period of 25 months were extracted from the National Disease Reporting System (NDRS) and analyzed. An interrupted time series (ITS) technique was used to detect changes in HFMD incidence rates in terms of level and slope between declining incidence periods of the three years.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Over 3.58 million HFMD cases younger than 5 years were reported to the NDRS between May 1, 2008, and May 31, 2011. Males comprised 63.4% of the cases. ITS analyses demonstrated a significant increase in incidence rate level (P<0.0001) when comparing the current period with the previous period. There were significant changes in declining slopes when comparing 2010 to 2009, and 2010 to 2008 (all P<0.005), but not 2009 to 2008.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Incremental changes in incidence rate level during the declining incidence periods of 2009 and 2010 can potentially be attributed to a few factors. The more steeply declining slope in 2010 compared with previous years could be ascribed to the implementation of more effective interventions and preventive strategies in 2010. Further investigation is required to examine this possibility.</p>

A system review on the application of BED-capture enzyme immunoassay in detecting new HIV-1 infection / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To study whether BED-capture enzyme immunoassay (CEIA) is feasible to be used in wide-ranging population, we collect papers and conference abstracts related to BED-CEIA and HIV-1 incidence. Methods 10 papers are included for the discussion, regarding the concordance between the estimated HIV-1 incidence from BED-CEIA and the results from a cohort studies; and 11 papers are selected to discuss the related misclassification on the estimation of HIV-1incidence. Results Concordance between the two sets is related to the districts and design of research. Results from Africa are not so satisfactory, but researches, those BED-CEIA samples are collected during the follow-up of the cohort study, have shown better outcomes than other ones. There are totally 7303 samples of LTI (long-term infections) collected for analyzing the misclassification of BED-CEIA. 432 LTI are misclassified as new infections, making the raw rate of misclassification as 5.9% with 95% confidential interval between 5.36 and 6.44. Data from systematic review shows that the BED-CEIA's misclassification rate relates to the count of CD4+T lymphocytes and time after the infection but has no relation to the classification of sub-populations (female sexual workers and intravenous drug users in China) and districts (China and Africa). Conclusion Our results reveal that the misclassification is relevant to the immune-status of the infected persons.